Job Market Paper

Species Diversification as Climate Adaptation in Perennial Systems: Trading off Annual Costs for Long-term Resilience Benefits

with Shadi Atallah

Presented at: Heartland Environmental and Resource Economics Workshop (2026, scheduled), JEEM/REE Workshop on Nonmarket Valuation (2026), World Congress of Environmental and Resource Economists (WCERE) (2026), Program in Environmental and Resource Economics (pERE), UIUC (2025), Annual BIOECON Conference (2025)

Draft available upon request

Abstract

Species diversification can enhance the resilience of agroecosystems to climate-related shocks and serve as a climate adaptation strategy. We study how producers in perennial systems weigh the annual costs against the delayed resilience benefits of species diversification, and how climate projection information shifts this trade-off. Given that private investments in resilience generate public good benefits, we test whether producers view diversification by others as strategic complements or substitutes. This paper develops a dynamic optimization model of a producer choosing the optimal diversification intensity and tests its predictions with U.S. maple producers using a discrete choice experiment with a randomized climate information treatment. The annual payment required rises by about $47 per acre for each percentage point increase in diversification intensity. Although longer contracts align commitments with the long-term horizon of resilience benefits, older producers require more than twice the additional payment relative to their younger peers and most of them prefer to keep their current monocultures, a status quo bias driven by their age. Producers view diversification by peers as a strategic complement to their own investments, reducing required payment by 29% when 50% of peers have diversified. Through a salience effect, region-specific climate projection information provisioning increases the weight producers place on future resilience benefits and reduces their sensitivity to annual yield losses. These results show three strategies for conservation programs seeking to increase agroecosystem resilience through species diversification to lower their costs: offering flexible contract terms, coordinating adoption among neighbors, and pairing payments with targeted climate information.

Two-panel chart. Panel A: the annual payment producers require rises with the share of non-maple trees, from $0 to about $3,700 per acre at 80 percent; at a 25 percent share it is $1,164 under reference attributes, $830 with 50 percent peer adoption, $1,689 with a 20 percent yield loss, and $2,351 with a 10-year contract. Panel B: relative to the reference, 50 percent peer adoption lowers the required payment by $334, a 20 percent yield loss raises it by $525, and a 10-year contract raises it by $1,187 for the average producer.
Compensating-payment schedules and payment shifts under alternative program requirements. Required payments rise with diversification intensity. Diversification by peers lowers them, while expected yield losses and longer contracts raise them. The contract effect shown is for the average producer; older producers require more than twice the additional payment relative to their younger peers.

Working Papers

Diversification as a Portfolio Decision: Evidence from a Choice Experiment in the U.S. Corn Belt

with Shadi Atallah and Ben Gramig

Presented at: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association (AAEA) Annual Meeting (2026, poster)

Abstract

This paper studies how farmers evaluate agricultural diversification alternatives that differ in expected returns, income risk, and production horizons. Using a choice experiment with producers in the U.S. Corn Belt, we examine how these economic considerations affect both the adoption and scale of diversification. The analysis sheds light on the relative importance of barriers to diversified production and informs the design of policies intended to address them.

New England Maple Producers May Be Open to Diversifying the Species Composition of Their Sugarbushes

with Shadi Atallah, Muhammad Jawad Khan, and David Moore

Presented at: Association of Environmental and Resource Economists (AERE) Summer Conference (2025), Agricultural and Applied Economics Association (AAEA) Annual Meeting (2024), W5133 Multistate Research Project Meeting (2024)

Abstract

Maple syrup production in New England is projected to decline by about 50% by 2100 under climate change, and diversifying maple forests can enhance their resilience to extreme weather. We use a choice experiment with producers recruited at a maple industry conference in Massachusetts to elicit preferences for sugarbush diversification programs, focusing on diversification intensity given a trade-off between long-run resilience benefits and immediate yield losses. Producers favored moderate levels, possibly because of perceived diminishing marginal benefits of diversification due to interspecies competition. They also favor longer contracts, consistent with the slow maturation of resilience benefits.

Trade Liberalization and Urban Spatial Structure: Evidence from China’s WTO Accession

with Shang Xu and Hongliang Zhang

Presented at: North American Meeting of the Urban Economics Association (UEA) (2022)

Abstract

We analyze how international trade shapes urban spatial structure, exploiting differential exposure to trade liberalization following China’s accession to the World Trade Organization. Our findings show that trade liberalization accounted for 38% of China’s urban expansion between 1995 and 2005. It also made cities more compact, reducing the average within-city distance by 8.9 kilometers. These effects are largely driven by indirect export exposure through industry input-output linkages, which increase population and firm density, boost household savings, and expand financial institution lending.

Work in Progress

Valuing Soil Microbiome-Mediated Ecosystem Services in Farm Management Decisions

with Shadi Atallah, Elias Bloom, and Clare Casteel

Abstract

This study examines how farmers value ecosystem services provided by soil microbiomes and how information about these otherwise difficult-to-observe services affects farm management decisions. Combining soil sampling and laboratory analysis on New York farms with a choice experiment, we link measured microbiome performance to farmers’ valuation and adoption of microbiome-supportive practices. The study provides a producer-side valuation of soil natural capital and examines how peer rankings of microbiome performance shape its management.